Monday, June 13, 2016

Brexit : Remain vs. Leave? Consider Iceland Volcanos

BREXIT: Remain or Leave in the EU? Consider the Icelandic Volcano Threat when Voting!

If you do not know what the "Brexit" (British Exit, from the EU / European Union) vote is by now, you probably do not live in the UK — the United Kingdon; i.e., in whole or part also known as: Great Britain, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland — or anywhere in Europe. Furthermore, you probably do not do business (import or export or purely financial transactions) within this region, because if you did and you do not know what the Brexit is, you would be utterly out of touch. The implied consequences (of a Brexit) upon trade and free movement of goods, services and people, are quite extraordinary.

Iceland Volcanoes : What does this have to do with Brexit?

Simply put: if the English, Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish citizens are no longer an integral part of the EU and its free-movement benefits, when the volcanoes of Iceland cover the UK in ash to the point their country is no longer inhabitable, or otherwise not able to effectively operate or accommodate their 65 million people for lack of breathable air, arable land, passable streets, and sufficient water supply (to name a few), they will quite likely encounter some heavy resistance to their desires to move, en masse or in majority, into mainland Europe as a place of refuge for what could be years.

It is not "if", it is "when"!

Unless people in the United Kingdom want to bear an increasing behavioral resemblance to Americans — you know, those "belief" driven types that choose to deny the scientific fact of Global Warming since it does not suit them, personally — you cannot choose to ignore the scientifically-backed threat that some or all of Great Britain will become buried under a substantial layer of volcanic ash from Iceland.  It will happen. And, quite probably, even without our current lifetimes.

And, when it does, the economic fallout will be incalculably large, and the human suffering may make the economic damages look like a silliness by comparison.  I am talking about an event that will make the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull look like nothing.  And, that "little" 2010 eruption caused tremendous disruption to air travel across large swaths of northwestern Europe for about a week, back in April 2010, as well as other side effects.

Where are you quickly going to move 65 million people, let alone quickly, if things get really bad in the UK? Mainland Europe is your only hope.  And, if you Brexit — i.e., if the "leave campaign" is successful in leaving the EU — you quite probably have rescinded your current inherent beneficial rights to free migration and movement throughout the EU.  Therefore, when the volcanic mess arrives, and persists for any length of time, all the "Brexiters" will find it not so simple to migrate elsewhere until the problem remits.

I have watched various science shows over the years about this topic of Icelandic volcano eruptions and the potential damage, especially to the UK, of a prolonged and sustained high-output ash-producing event.  All forecasts, based on standard climactic and prevailing wind pattern behaviours, foretell a truly awful catastrophe for Britain, more so than most anywhere else.

The bottom line: this is one crystal-clear reason that the UK should remain in the EU!  There is no argument to the contrary (i.e., a pro "leave" argument) on this matter, aside from a fool's potential propaganda. Clearly, all UK citizens would be better served by remaining in the UK so that in the event of this, or any other equally serious catastrophe within the UK, they could still have the legally-binding right to migrate, for as long as necessary, into unaffected EU countries and regions.

And, sadly, it is not like volcanoes are the only potential threat — in this day and age, one must consider the menace of terror and how certain attack vectors, however unlikely, could leave portions of a country severely damaged (potentially uninhabitable) for sustained periods of time.  And, if such horrendous things were ever to occur, it might be nice knowing, as UK citizens and EU members, that you maintain the freedom of mobility (physical, work location, etc) to at least contemplate options that may otherwise not exist for you.  Would it not be better to know, with certainty, that your options will exist rather than counting on some anticipated mass "good will" of the continental Europe or other foreign countries to accept you into their lands if you absolutely needed somewhere to flee to in an emergency? ... rather than later face the foreign cynics that may fear the repercussions of millions of people fleeing the UK into the EU?

Then again, isn't it that same fear that in reverse that has many British contemplating voting for a "Brexit"?  Reciprocity could truly suck!

** note: I have no idea what becomes of British overseas territories and such like Gibraltar, which without free movement between itself and mainland Spain is pretty much screwed by a "Brexit" regardless of volcanos, etc.  This discussion contemplates the primary UK regions only. And, I am not diving into discussion about various players in all this like: David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, and the long list of others.

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