I'm looking at this from two angles as well:
- what can people "safely" purchase for their families this Christmas season, and
- how will such purchasing decisions affect stock prices?
Another angle to consider is the game retailers in general. "Traditional" game stores like Toys R Us or whatever are bound to have a challenging time with all this Chinese lead paint recall news, and I think that electronics retailers like Best Buy and Circuit City may end up reaping a large (sales) benefit from this situation, but will their stock reflect it? Prior history would seem to indicate otherwise, at least for the short-term following the big post-Thanksgiving holiday shopping weekend. In fact, when I looked at the charts, it seemed as though quite regularly the "pattern" would be over-optimistic investors would cause the stock to hit a short term "peak" price the day before Thanksgiving, and then nearly without fail, in the coming week the stock would fall (as, presumably, over exuberance was tamed repeatedly with less than stellar sales reports from retailers during Black Friday). But, that aside, perhaps someone like (NYSE:BBY) could still show long-term benefit.
All I know is that right now, from where I sit, I see all the "cool" products being electronic ones and anything that is "safe" from a lead-free perspective. I'm not in tune with what anyone buys for young people though (under teenage years especially); perhaps clothes this year... got me. But, for teens on up, I'm thinking electronics (and video games in particular) will be quite a hit this year.