Tuesday, September 23, 2008

FIXING AMERICA'S ECONOMY and FINANCIAL SYSTEM RIGHT!

FIXING AMERICA'S ECONOMY for the LONG-TERM!
(common-sense math to start things off)

I can't believe the staggering figure this current government bailout push entails. We are hearing $700 Billion for the latest bailout add-on, and this comes on top of other 10's of Billions. So, let me just round this all to an even TRILLION DOLLARS and start trying to help the average person (and perhaps our insanely ignorant Congressmen) understand how much a Trillion dollars is.
ONE TRILLION = ONE MILLION MILLIONS
or
ONE TRILLION = ONE THOUSAND BILLIONS
or
ONE TRILLION = TEN MILLION ONE-HUNDRED-THOUSANDS
I use the last line above for the simple reason that it demonstrates quite clearly how ONE TRILLION DOLLARS CAN BUY TEN MILLION ONE-HUNDRED-THOUSAND-DOLLAR HOMES! Or, you could pay TEN MILLION WORKERS $100,000 FOR ONE YEAR!

Holy @#$! That is a LOT of money.

And, my examples should make clear how unbelievably stupid a bailout, that simply hands this amount of money to a FEW (with the few being select financial firms, banks, and other companies deemed "too large to fail"). Such a bailout move will create NO LONG TERM VALUE for America! In fact, it will likely do the opposite (I will bet on this big-time!).

Bernanke and Paulson, both are pushing that there is only “one solution” to this problem. I know for sure these guys can not be that stupid, and as such, it should give everyone even more pause when considering the sweeping authority these two are requesting for the Treasury and Federal Reserve (not to mention that near-Trillion dollars).

There are MANY ways to approach, and address the problems we face, and I GUARANTEE that any quick-hit bailout will do more harm than good over the long-term, especially compared to a comprehensive and well thought out strategy for long-term value. Again, I find myself convinced that the actions of the Fed/Treasury reflect only the outcome that “big money” wants: i.e., a quick-fix, money-grab that will allow them to fleece the taxpayers at a pace never before seen, so they can then pull their cash out of here as quickly as possible (oh, and do so while the Bush tax-cuts on the super-wealthy are still in effect -- gotta get that cash while the tax-bite is as low as it ever has been!)

A GOOD Bailout plan MUST PRODUCE LONG-TERM VALUE, and there is none in the current Bernanke/Paulson proposal that is being sold as the "only solution" (though, nobody will say that this "fix" will even work). If we are going to spend nearly a Trillion Dollars, then we NEED to spend it on something that is going to be a returnable-value (or value-producing) investment. I have various ideas that meet this criteria, and I am sure others do to, though according to our two favorite government officials, theirs is "the only way" and I have even heard Congressmen saying "nobody else has any alternative plans". Give me a break! Speak up everyone, and get your plans heard (though, I can nearly guarantee the government will go through its normal choreography and make it SEEM like they are considering other avenues, only to give Paulson/Bernanke exactly what they ask for, and in short order, regardless).

DEAR GOVERNMENT:
HERE IS JUST ONE OF THOSE "ALTERNATIVES" TO CONSIDER ASIDE FROM THE PAULSON / BERNANKE BAILOUT MODEL!
(no more excuses about not hearing any options!)


How about we use a similarly large pile of money to address a couple major problems at once in this country. Oversupply of houses, especially in distressed areas, where the cost to demolish the garbage homes is more than the price of the land. Here in Cleveland, our regional government claims they can't even give away the land because it is $10-20,000 per lot to demolish and remove the homes.

So, at $20,000/each, or heck, let's call it $50,000 to cover the 2.5x markup that always happens when the government gets its hands on ANYTHING, we could purchase ONE MILLION HOMES / LOTS (for only 50 BILLION DOLLARS!) Then we can tear them down, and in their place, erect one million 225,000 Watt windmills (e.g., Vestas V-27s) at $500,000 each ($300K RETAIL per unit- they go cheaper in reality; and $200K for installation), and we have just spent $500,000,000,000 (i.e., 500 billion, or 1/2 Trillion) more.

Total Cost: .55 Trillion (i.e., $550Billion). Even with a 50% cost overrun (needed "budgeting" in ANY government contracts!), we are still only looking at the $700-800Billion range, much like Paulson thinks it will take to "fix this economy".

AND, MY PLAN OFFERS MASSIVE POSITIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT!
Real-Estate developers best jump on MY PLAN right away, as the reduced inventory of homes will have a nearly instantaneous positive effect on their business. Heck, anyone wanting to sell a home would benefit from a market that is no longer flooded with millions of "extra" homes. And, home-values around each of the "improved" areas I target will ALSO rise. Tax revenue will go up as jobs are created, property values are raised, and so on. The giant sucking-sound of our money going abroad for fuel will also go down and help our trade balance. GE - ARE YOU LISTENING? Think about how busy you can be manufacturing cutting-edge turbines? And, on and on go the benefits...

How many ELECTRICAL AND CONSTRUCTION JOBS will be created to build, erect, and tie those windmills into the grid? How many JOBS will their be for DEMOLITION OF ABANDONED HOMES? The positive domino-effect will be staggering, as all sorts of additional economic stimulation surrounds this effort. And, how many LONG-TERM JOBS will there be supporting this infrastructure for years to come, and paid for with the power they generate??

Speaking of power,... consider the POWER GENERATION and LONG TERM REDUCTION IN DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL that this could contribute. I am talking ONE MILLION TIME 225,000 Watts, or 225 GIGAWATTS OF RATED POWER added to the grid, or on a yearly basis: nearly TWO THOUSAND TERAWATT HOURS at peak (even 1/2 that is huge)! That is a serious amount of power, folks! In 2005, the USA only produced FOUR THOUSAND terawatt hours of electricity total. Now can you see what I'm saying? This would take a HUGE bite out of our fossil-fuel requirements. Not to mention, we just addressed global-warming as nothing more than a side-effect of this plan!

Note 1: I am thinking there MUST be some type of royalty-sharing with the government and power-companies to make this work, so we, the taxpayers, get value back, much like how Palin's Alaskans each get a cut of the oil money that flows out of Alaska (yes, PALIN is TAX CRAZY in Alaska, as they take something like 75% of the price per barrel for each barrel pumped out of Alaska as "royalties", and each citizen of Alaska gets roughly $3,000 per year "kickback" thanks to this!). Don't worry, I am not advocating anywhere NEAR a 75% cut for the government, but we do need a fair cut to make this investment a solid one for the taxpayers (unlike Paulson's plan!)

Note 2: it will likely make more sense to use LESS, but LARGER (e.g., 2-3MW size) windmills, and as such, any "unused" lots we clear of empty or trashed houses around the country can become PARKS or shared-community gardens or just simply GREEN-SPACE for residents to enjoy. Who cares: it cleans up the blight regardless! Sure, each windmill site may not be ideal for maximum wind speeds, but who cares? Beats pissing our money away for nothing with a handout/bailout!

CONGRESS, LISTEN UP!
This is just my FIRST ALTERNATIVE IDEA TO COUNTER THE INSANE PAULSON AND BERNANKE APPROACH! The money under my plan can start flowing immediately, as purchasing "junk mortgages" is an integral part of my plan. Confidence will start to be restored right away. And, money can immediately follow that to fund the demolition of homes purchased under my plan. The Fannie/Freddie "Balance Sheet" will improve quickly!

Please, someone, listen!
And, there are certainly other ideas out there of similar potential. Nearly ANYTHING would be better than a handout of nearly a trillion dollars to the same group of companies and senior executives that helped this current mess come to be!

4 comments:

Ray said...

Despite the stats, I see thousands of 125K jobs posted on employment sites:

http://www.linkedin.com
http://www.monster.com
http://www.realmatch.com

There are tons of jobs if you look.

Mike Eberhart said...

ray,
OK, I guess I just don't quite understand exactly what your comment had to do with my blog entry, but what the heck, post away and promote monster or whatever :)

DED said...

I like the idea though I doubt half of Congress will listen.

I've had a chance to watch the hearings this week and there are many in both houses that are very unhappy with this plan. They ARE looking at alternatives and Congressional oversight is definitely something they want.

Senator Schumer (D-NY) was talking about maybe giving $150 billion now with the promise to revisit the issue in a few months to see what sort of progress is being made.

There's a definite desire to see these homes remain intact so demolition isn't going to have much of a chance. The people involved in this want these "illiquid assets" to be turned around into something palatable to the financial industry. Foreclosure prevention through mortgage restructuring is popular. They don't want to have images of people having their homes destroyed on the news. For some reason, the idea that everyone should own a home, irregardless of ability to afford one, seems stuck in their heads. I don't know why renting a home is no longer an acceptable idea.

Mike Eberhart said...

ded,
you have some good points, as always. Yeah, I am with you: why is renting not an "acceptable" option for the American dream, especially now that the dream has been shown to be just THAT (i.e., not real).