Tuesday, December 26, 2006

VMware Workstation 6.0 now in Beta

VMWare offers some of my absolute favorite software/technology products - all revolving around "virtual machines", which let you make much greater use of your existing computing hardware by being able to run what is in effect multiple-computers on one computer. I make regular use of their free VMware Player software, as well as their VMware workstation software. I've written about VMware software virtualization advantages previously here on my software and technology blog, and, I keep a watch on the upcoming products VMware has in the works, planned, or in Beta.

And, now VMware has announced the Beta release of VMWare Workstation 6.0. This new release brings some long-awaited features I am really looking forward to testing. These include:

  • Multiple Monitor Support! Woohoo! This is a very cool addition, offering the ability to span monitors within a guest operating-system, just like you can do with a normal desktop. I have one development machine I would really like to put this feature to use on.
  • Run Virtual Machines in the Background. This is sorta nice, when you don't want the graphical portion of VMware Workstation always running just to keep a virtual-machine running. Now there will be a little system-tray icon to show what is running instead if you like - quite minimal compared to the full GUI.
  • Enhanced copy/paste between disparate guest operating systems. Now, this is cool for sure, giving you an easy way to copy/paste files between Windows and Linux to name one use. Even drag-n-drop between mixed OS's is now supported!! This should be a huge time-saver in mixed-OS environments. Definitely looking forward to testing it.
  • USB 2.0 high-speed device support (certainly something I will welcome).
  • Increased RAM limits -- more total memory can be used be Workstation, and each guest-OS can be allocated more. Sadly, I will need to purchase more RAM to try this one out, but I have needed a good excuse to do so. :) Maybe a 16GB workstation is in my future. Ah, just the thought of putting all that memory to use..
As with any beta, there are known bugs and issues that are still in a state of flux, but the release sounds like a promising one. Here is a link to the full VMware Workstation 6.0 Beta Release Notes to see more detail on what is new.

In addition recently, VMware has announced how they would be offering their desktop virtualization software on the new Intel-based Apple Macintosh computers. This should be really great news for those that want to go with an Apple OS-X machine, but are worried about having access to Microsoft Windows on occasion -- once VMware's products are out for the Mac, this concern should greatly dissipate, since you should be able to run MS Windows from a Mac machine in a fully self-contained virtual-machine (With the advantage over Apple's "Bootcamp" being how you can run both OSX and Windows simultaneously -- OS-X as the "host" OS, and Windows as the "guest" OS). Heck, run Linux on it too just for kicks!

Friday, December 15, 2006

Adobe Photoshop CS3 Beta is out

For those of you who use Adobe Photoshop and like to keep up with where the product is headed, Adobe has release a public beta of Photoshop CS3. Here is a link to the release notes and new features in Adobe Photoshop CS3. A couple of the items caught me attention, including the "refine edge" capability and the "quick selection" enhancements. I have to believe there are more changes then there are listed in the page, since there are not very many high-level changes listed.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Daystar Technologies NASDAQ:DSTI - To be or not to be?

If you follow, or invest in, Daystar Technologies (NASDAQ:DSTI) stock, you may be wondering about the long-term prospects for this company. Will they make it as a solar-cell player, or will they be unable to secure adequate funding to remain viable and/or competitive?

I have watched Daystar Technologies, Inc. stock for some time now, and have watched it rise from $2-3.00 range back in early 2005, to a peak of nearly $16.00 in mid-2005, through to its current slide to the $4.65 level. A lot of this stock's price chart can be correlated to the over-exuberance about alternative-energy and solar plays that took place during the massive oil price run up which started in 2005, followed by a corresponding realization that these solar companies in startup-mode (like Daystar) may not make a profit for quite some time, let alone even remain viable as a company if they can not obtain adequate financing for the capital-intensive manufacturing ramp-up they require to reach any real economy-of-scale production capacity.

Recently, it seems DSTI has come under quite a bit of selling pressure as the obviousness of the financing situation emerges. Apparently, one of the biggest investors of recent ( Castlerigg Master Investments Ltd., an offshore investment fund that has already provided about $15MM in funding to DayStar), has been backing off a bit when it comes to any future/continued investment into the company. Coupled with the recent departure of DayStar's founder (John Tuttle) and subsequent shuffling at the top of the management structure, there is certainly reason to take pause as an investor.

Now, let's put that aside for a bit and look at what DayStart Technologies has to offer as a company. DSTI is focused on providing low-cost, high-volume solar-electric photovoltaic (PV) cells, using patented technologies that employ a unique combination of Copper Indium Gallium diSelenide (CIGS) technology solar cells placed on flexible specialty metal foils. Their approach promises a few improvements over standard silicon solar-cells in that they will take require much less natural resources to product, not be dependent on high-quality silicon wafers (that are in short supply), and also be lightweight and flexible.

This all sounds great! And, DayStar seems to be have laid out some logical steps to execute their stated three-year mission of establishing themselves with a profitable manufacturing platform, expandable to Gigawatt scale, by 2008. Gigawatt scale! WOW! Assuming they reach that level of solar cell production, that would imply a capacity approximately equal to today’s combined worldwide manufacturing capacity for all PV solar cells! That could sure change the game for Solar Energy as a whole.

So, I look at their stock with both caution and excitement. I see inherent value in their patents and technology. I see potential for the alternative energy market as a whole, though I see our government doing little to promote it and instead wasting 100's of billions of dollars on oil-subsidies (yes, the war costs are oil subsidies in one way or the other -- the cost of protecting the steady flow of oil from the Middle East). When I look at DayStar's funding requirements to stay on plan, and the fact that an investment as tiny as $15MM from Castlerigg can even matter, I just sit shaking my head when I think how that $15MM is not even 1/30,000th of what our government has spent on the Iraq War. But, our government's priorities will likely not change, so DayStar will need to seek funding elsewhere: perhaps Bill Gates or the Google founders will see the light?

Next, as with ANY stock (especially startups), I keep a VERY close eye on management compensation and watch for what I call "self-awarded" excessive stock options and such. I am always concerned that the entire goal for many of these higher profile small startups (certainly not publicly stated) is simply to become a publicly traded stock and gain enough market liquidity whereby internal holders of said stock have a way to essentially "print stock" and convert that stock to cash,... regardless of the long-term impact on the stock price or the ramifications for the average investor that doesn't have the ability to simply "print more stock shares" to reap substantial returns. If all these senior-level managers in the company truly believe in their vision, then they need to forego the immediate "need" for cashing stock holdings out until the company is profitable and the stock is steady and solid enough for ALL investors (meaning, us the average stock holder) to reap rewards for taking risk too. I do not want to be viewed simply as a source for liquidity for insiders to dump their over-generous self-awarded shares onto. (this rant of mine is not about DSTI per se, but my concern that many, many companies, both small and large, are absolutely abusing the average shareholder these days by diluting stock through excessive "self awards").

So, DayStar executives, if you want to absolutely convince me that your company is a great investment, prove it by not selling your stock until you have achieved your stated goals for 2008, and have executed a plan that produces profits. You have the technology from what I can figure, and you have a team with skills in the Solar sector. Time to make some friends with a few wealthy individuals that can kick in $10 million or so apiece to keep your plan on track though! It's really not that much given how many ultra-rich entrepreneurs and individuals there are out there; you may want to focus on the more "liberal" or "green" ones, like StarBucks Howard Schultz, the Google guys, and so on.

I'll be watching DSTI, and who knows, if their stock's market capitalization goes much lower, I may start making a few calls myself and seeing if I can line up the cash to buy out the company and make sure the DayStar Technologies vision becomes reality. :)

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Barclays Bank - Nice Gain over past few months.

If you happened to read my blog back on August 17th, 2006, about currency hedging with ADRs where I featured Barclays Bank as one of the ADRs to consider, perhaps you picked up some shares. If so, you should be quite pleased with your returns since then!

At the time, Barclays (NYSE: BCS) was trading under $50/share, and thanks to a weak dollar since then, and the new rumors/talk that Bank of America is looking to buy Barclays in what will be a massive merger transaction, the ADR share price of BCS has closed at USD $58.25. You may have just made 20% over the past few months, or more depending when you invested in Barclays.

The one thing I am not sure of now, is whether holding BCS during this speculation time is still the best way to go. With a cost-basis of around $45 on this latest cycle, I am looking at a 30% return in a relatively short period of time. Certainly this met, and even exceeded, my short-term objectives for playing currency-movements. The stock could rise further on speculation of increased bid-price during a takeover or whatever, but some of the excitement could also dissipate. I guess it is time to flip a coin. The original ownership reason (hedging against the US Dollar falling versus the British Pound) is still somewhat legitimate, though with the Pound pushing a 15-year high, I do not know how much more wind is in the sails of that price-movement-force.

Keep ADRs in mind in your investing portfolio, and look for solid stocks that can benefit from currency swings in addition to their fundamental strengths, and you will likely be in a decent position long term regardless.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Is the US Dollar in Freefall mode now? Help stop the slide!

If you pay attention to currency exchange rates, as I do, you may be troubled by not just the current value of your US Dollars, but how quickly their value has been deteriorating. The dollar has slumped to a near 15-year low; a level not seen since the prior Bush administration (coincidence? hmmm). If you happen to be one of the rare USA exporters, perhaps you do not mind the fact that the Greenback is lightening up a bit, but for the 90+% of America that is utterly dependent on cheap imports, having our currency's strength whacked so quickly should be a bit disconcerting.

There are very large forces at play here. Perhaps the largest of all is the one that is most "intangible" - being: confidence and sentiment. The regard for the US Dollar worldwide is, at least for now, waning. And, our government does not appear at all concerned with the fact that a large part of this decrease in confidence in our currency strength/value (relative to other world currencies) has to do with their utter disregard for massive debt and deficit spending, out of control "free trade" policies that have pushed our current account deficit through the ceiling, and a tax policy that makes little effort to balance revenue and expense at the Federal level.

China is also a big force behind this move, and will continue to be a (growing) force in the future. All they need to do is talk about diversifying their holdings into other currencies, and wham, down goes the Dollar some more. And, if that wasn't bad enough, they tie the value of their currency to the US Dollar so as not to provide any trade advantage to the US (exporters to China) as our dollar slides, so as not to adversely affect the importation of Chinese goods (they dare not have a $1-dollar item now cost $1.10, lest we consider making that item ourselves). And, getting back to the diversification of currency matter, they take the Dollar surplus they have and buy into other world currencies, pushing the US further down against OTHER world currencies while not down against their own. This is brilliant (for the Chinese, and for OPEC who prices their commodity in US Dollars)! How better to ensure you trade with them!?

When your currency devalues against all but your primary trading partner's currency, where do you think you will purchase even more goods from? Ah yes, you got it -- China. And, the circle (or death-spiral) continues. This is something we must break free of before it drags us so far down beneath the surface that we drown. Sadly, given the actions of this administration and our elected officials as a whole (regardless of party affiliation), I have zero confidence that anything will change. Capitalism and consumerism can be wonderful, until the overwhelming lust for short-term profits and cheap consumer goods, regardless of the long-term consequences, outweigh common sense and the jeopardize the very sovereignty and stability of our country and our currency. I fear we have reached this point.

Something must change.
Break the cycle! Yes, I am talking to YOU!

We, all Americans, must adjust our habits now, or face having outside forces impose mandatory and major habit adjustments on use later -- if you love your way of life here in the great United States, start acting like you enjoy it enough to preserve that way of life for your progeny. And, keep an open mind about the steps that need to be taken, regardless of how you classify yourself politically or socially. I challenge both conservatives and liberals to change; Republicans and Democrats to change; all of us must change!

Some of the steps we all should start to take include:

  • Diminish dependence on foreign goods. This is incredibly difficult, with such a high percentage of all products coming from overseas. But, try! Quit stuffing the Middle-East coffers with oil money. Try, try hard, to find comparable products made here in the USA when possible, even if they cost a bit more, lest we lose the last of our manufacturing capacity.
  • Work to get our government leaders to control this insane level of spending! This is tough, since the average individual's desires seem to go unnoticed by our elected representatives these days, but expressing your concerns may lead to some sort of change in candidates or policy. We can hope.
  • Voice opposition to "free trade" policies that are not fair trade as well. If products can come into this country with zero tariffs, then we darn well better be able to export to whatever country sent us those goods and get the same zero tariff deal on that end! Also, trade with countries that are truly our allies, and not ones that have questionable intent.
  • Tax policy: this is a huge area of contention between the "rich" and everyone else. I am convinced a fair level of taxation for everyone can be reached. Certainly a tax policy that is better aligned with our spending would make sense. "Pay-Go" or such. So, if you want low taxes, then you darn well better want lower government spending too! At the top-end of the scale, the tax benefits (like low-rate dividends tax, capital-gains taxes, and estate-taxes) are just a bit ridiculous -- for god sakes, put a cap on where the 1/2-rate dividends-tax and such ends. On the lower end of the scale, this country really needs to look into things live a VAT, or some form of consumption-based tax to secure funding from the "underground economy" that is rife with cash business/transactions and tax avoidance schemes.
  • Reduce consumption, since so much of our consumption is enabled with foreign-financed debt. And, so much of what we consume is from overseas.
  • Increase the savings rate! Which, should go along with reduced consumption.
I really would like to think we can avoid a complete freefall of the dollar, but without changing some of our fundamental habits (personal and government), I just do not see how. Help!